You can hire me to talk you out of a launch. Sometimes I don’t.
One service: a written assessment of a launch before you pay for it. Ticker, venue, cost floor, and what the base rate says about the shape of what you are proposing. Most of them end in don’t.
Four checks and a verdict
Each one is something this desk already measures continuously for itself. You are not paying for research to begin — you are paying for it to be pointed at your launch, and for someone to commit to a reading of it.
Ticker
Whether the symbol is already carried by a live trading pair, a CoinGecko listing, or the launchpad graveyard — and whether the collisions that exist are dead weight or an active coin you would be competing against. 25 symbols have been through it so far; 11 came back clear.
Venue
Whether the venue you intend to use is trading at the hour you intend to use it, read off its own chain rather than taken from its dashboard. A launchpad has no reason to tell you its venue has emptied. 72 samples on the record, taken every twenty minutes.
Cost floor
What the launch costs before it earns anything: the venue fee, the dev buy you may not get back, and the volume required to clear both. This is arithmetic, it takes an afternoon, and it is the step that most often ends the conversation.
Base rate
What happens to launches shaped like yours, from this desk’s record and the research behind it. Not a forecast — a reference class, with its sample size and its limits stated, so you can see how much weight it will carry.
The output is a short written verdict that takes a position, not a report you have to interpret. Where the four checks disagree with each other, it says so.
For people who launch more than once
This is the part a services page usually buries. It goes near the top instead.
A single launch’s outcome is mostly variance and nothing here can fix that. Buy an assessment for one launch and you have bought a slightly better-informed coin flip; if it lands badly you will reasonably feel you were sold nothing.
Someone launching twenty times experiences the base rate rather than drawing once from it, and the base rate is the only thing this measures. That is who it is written and priced for: agencies, studios, and people who do this monthly.
If you are launching once, read the site instead. It is free, it is the same data, and it will tell you most of what an assessment would.
What it costs
If the assessment says don’t, you have paid $1,200 in order not to spend considerably more. That is the transaction. It is worth stating plainly, because it is the most likely outcome and it is not a failure of the service.
The findings get published
Anonymised: not your name, not your ticker, not your timing. The finding.
This is not a courtesy being asked for, it is the mechanism. The record is the only reason an assessment from this desk is worth more than a guess, and the record only grows if the work feeds it. Every engagement makes the next one better, and the public data is what let you check this desk out before deciding to pay it.
If an anonymised finding being published is not acceptable, this is the wrong desk — and I would rather that be on this page than discovered in an email later.
What it will not do
- Promise an outcome. Nothing can. Anything claiming otherwise is selling something other than what it says on the label.
- Tell you your coin will work. 4 launches from this desk, every one of them dead, $118 net across all of it. That is the front page, not a disclosure being made here because you asked for one.
- Take money from a launchpad or a venue. Not for coverage, not for placement, not for a referral. The moment a venue pays this desk, every venue comparison it publishes becomes an advertisement. If that ever changes it will be disclosed on this page before any affected work goes out.
- Market your launch or buy you attention. Different business — and the research here argues the thing sold there does not work in the direction it is sold in.
What this rests on
Published before anyone was considering paying for it, which is the only reason it counts for anything.
Ask about an assessment
Tell me what you are launching and roughly when. I answer every one, including the ones I turn down, and I will say which it is in the first line.